Oct 8 (Reuters) – El Niño continues to strengthen, with a greater than 83% chance that a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, the US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
“Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the weather forecaster added.
• El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
• This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.
• A strong El Nino can roil commodity markets by disrupting crop yields through droughts and excessive rainfall, raising concerns over global supplies.
• “El Nino continues to strengthen and is expected to peak in December and persist through much of Northern Hemisphere spring,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.
• This year’s El Nino will intensify before peaking in December and is nearly 100% certain to last until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said, with sea surface temperatures set to break records.
• Meanwhile, Isaias became the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season late on Wednesday, with further strengthening forecast as the storm tracks towards the northern Gulf Coast.
• “Hurricane Isaias is the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, and the very slow and delayed season has indeed been fueled by El Nino-induced wind shear,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland.
• Meanwhile, extreme heat caused by this year’s “super-El Nino” could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June this year to February 2027, researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab said last month.
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter and Louise Heavens)
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