LONDON (Reuters) – JPMorgan on Friday cut its forecast for China’s economic growth for this year and next, against a backdrop of prolonged weakness in the housing sector and a resurgence of regional COVID-outbreaks.
JPM revised its full year 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.2%, and revised down lower its 2023 forecast to 4.6% from 5.1% previously.
The cut to the forecast takes JPM’s estimate further below the 5.5% growth target Beijing said it hopes to reach in 2022.
“Our baseline assumption expects a shift away from zero-COVID policy next spring,” JPMorgan’s analysts said.
“While this will help permanently remove the COVID-uncertainty faced by the economy, the transitional period could observe a spike in new infections, volatility in public sentiment and temporary drags on economic performance.”
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)
