By Wayne Cole and Sruthi Shankar
July 27 (Reuters) – Global stock markets climbed on Monday as easing Middle East hostilities sent oil prices sharply lower and eased inflation worries ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings and earnings reports.
Iran said on Sunday it would halt its own attacks as long as the United States did the same, with the U.S. military reportedly concerned about dwindling supplies of ammunition. The lull in fighting over the Strait of Hormuz saw Brent crude slide 6.3% to $90.70 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 5.7% to $84.12. [O/R]
Stock markets across the globe staged a relief rally on Monday after intense fighting in the Middle East over the past week pushed oil prices to above $100 a barrel.
Europe’s STOXX 600 climbed nearly 0.5%, at one point, touching its highest since July 7. Economically sensitive retail and travel stocks rallied more than 2% although a drop in oil stocks weighed on the broader market. [.EU]
S&P 500 futures rose 0.9%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.5%. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%.
The euro edged up 0.23% to $1.1395. Most major currencies also advanced against the dollar, as traders slightly pared back the probability of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this week.
The U.S. central bank’s decision is due on Wednesday and markets imply around a one-in-three chance of a rate rise, though most analysts doubt Chair Kevin Warsh would be in favour of such a move.
“A rate hike this week would send (a) powerful signal at the start of his term that he is serious about improving the Fed’s inflation fighting credibility. However, we are not convinced that he wants to back up his tough talk on inflation with policy action as soon as this week,” Lee Hardman, a senior currency analyst at MUFG said in a note.
“If inflation risks do not ease over the summer, a September rate hike would become more likely.”
The Bank of England will announce its policy decision on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, and both are expected to hold steady, while remaining cautious about inflation risks ahead.
The dollar dipped 0.2% against the yen to 163.53.
TECH EARNINGS TO TEST BULLS
Chinese blue chips gained 1.2% as chipmaker CXMT Corp surged nearly 500% in its Shanghai trading debut after raising $8.6 billion in Asia’s biggest initial public offering this year.
About one-third of S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, with earnings on track to boast a 26.5% increase over last year, according to LSEG IBES data.
With expectations so high and mounting unease over the vast cost of AI capex, even blockbuster results may not be enough to please investors.
The massive sums involved were underlined by a Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia was in talks to provide a roughly $250-billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a data center project.
Companies reporting this week include tech darlings Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple and Qualcomm, along with a host of industrial, defence and healthcare stocks.
Data highlights include U.S. advance second-quarter GDP with growth expected to pick up to an annualised 1.5% after a soft start to the year. The June PCE price index, personal income and consumption, weekly jobless claims, second quarter employment cost index and July Michigan consumer sentiment round out the week’s diary.
The euro zone’s schedule includes flash Q2 GDP, July economic sentiment, consumer confidence, flash inflation and June unemployment.
The Ifo Institute’s survey on Monday showed German business morale grew more than expected in July thanks to significantly improved expectations.
The pullback in oil helped 10-year Treasury yields fall 3.8 basis points to 4.64%.
In commodity markets, the drop in yields helped non-interest-paying gold climb 0.92% to $4,090.45 an ounce. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Wayne Cole and Sruthi Shankar; Editing by Stephen Coates, Sam Holmes and Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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