LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) – JPMorgan trimmed its outlook for non-oil growth for economies across the Gulf region this year following the widening Iran conflict over the weekend, warning that there was a risk of bigger revisions ahead.
The Wall Street bank cut non-oil growth by 0.3 percentage points across the bloc, with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates seeing the biggest reduction, at 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.
“Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes,” JPMorgan analysts said.
The bank also said it no longer expected Turkey’s central bank to cut interest rates at its March 12 meeting and revised its end-2026 policy rate forecast to 31% from 30%, while inflation was now expected to stand at 25% rather than 24% at that point.
“With Israel directly involved in the current conflict, it is probably fair to assume the BOI (Bank of Israel) will not cut in March either,” JPMorgan said.
(Reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Amanda Cooper)
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